How To Predict Which Chord Comes Next In A Song

Wouldn't it be nice if you could predict which chordor your child. It might be your cousin down the street --
would probably come next in a song?there's a much better chance of that than, say, Mel
I've got some good news for you.Gibson -- but my best odds would be to guess that
It is possible. Not 100%, but somewhere on the orderthe family members would be there. It's the same way
of 75% to 85% accurate.with chords. In any given key, there are 3 "family
That's because music has FORM -- like the skeletonmembers" that are residents of that key -- the I chord,
that holds your flesh, muscles, and skin up. If you hadthe IV chord, and the V chord. They are far and away
no bones -- no skeleton -- your flesh and all the otherthe most likely chords to occur in any given key.
parts of you would fall in a heap on the floor. Not aFor example, if I am playing in the Key of C, and the
pretty picture. But because you DO have a skeleton,first chord is the C chord and I have to guess what
you are able to walk around and pretty accuratelythe next chord is, I would guess that it would be either
predict which way your next step will take you.the F chord or the G chord. Why? Because those are
It's the same in music. Music has FORM -- a skeletonthe other "family members". So we have narrowed
to hold it up, hold it together. And that skeleton is madethe odds a great deal just by knowing who the
out of chords -- harmony -- the tonal center of themembers of the family are.
song or piece.So how could I tell whether it should be F or G? If the
In any given key you can play in, there are PRIMARYmelody is a "B", then the chord is probably a G chord.
CHORDS -- chords that occur way more than otherWhy? Because "B" is in the G chord, but is not in the F
chords. They are like family members of that particularchord.
key.If the melody is a "A", than I would guess that the
At your house, let's say you have 3 people in yourchord is F. Why? Because "A" is in the F chord, but is
family -- your spouse, your child, and you. On the samenot in the G chord.
block, but down the street a few houses, lives yourDoes that mean that there are always just 3 chords in
cousin and her family. At any given moment, who area song?
the most likely people to be in your house?No, but there are literally hundreds of songs that are
Steve Martin? John McCain? Barry Bonds?made of just 3 chords.
I don't think so.What if there are more than 3 chords in a song?
It's possible, of course, but not too likely. If I had toWhat then?
guess, I would say it would be either you, your spouse,We'll take that up in part 2 of this series of articles.